Niche Politics

With Senator Clinton conceding yesterday and the path to the nomination clear for Senator Obama and Senator McCain, I thought it would be interesting to take some of what I have read from The Boys on the Bus and The Last Campaign and discuss similarities in campaign style with the 2008 Presidential candidates and the candidates of 1948 and 1972. In full disclosure, I spent two months (March through April in PA) working on Senator Obama’s Presidential campaign. Still I will try to be as unbiased as possible. Please comment if you think I am off the mark or if you see other similarities
Also, I am fully aware that the 1948 and 1972 primary season was nothing like this year’s prolonged Democratic Primary race. Nominations by party leaders in 1948’s Republican and Democratic Conventions determined the nominee while the Primaries were seen more as a gauges of support. And McGovern became the front-runner early and after winning all 273 of the California delegation (it was not proportional as it is now) ran away with the nomination.

Senator Clinton Equals Governor Dewey

Senator Clinton reminds me very much of how Karabell portrayed Governor Dewey’s run for the nomination and the white house. They are as follows:

• Clinton and Dewey both launched their campaigns as the presumptive favorite within their parties only to lose a great deal of their sparkle toward the end
• Both relied early on national opinion polls to gauge their ‘electability,’ but faltered largely due to their opponent’s extensive field outreach,
• Both used New York’s proximity toNew Hampshire to help solidify their status in the race for the nomination.
• Hillary, at least initially, took a far more moderate approach than the other Democratic candidates, opting, like Dewey, to ‘minimizing risk and avoiding sharp edges.’ (p. 83)
• Both relied heavily on good relationships with party leaders.

Obviously there are differences but from the standpoint of the campaign mentality, but I believe this is pretty accurate.

Senator McCain Equals Harry Truman.

Despite the difference in party affiliation, the campaigns of both Truman and McCain have some interesting similarities.

• Both campaigns could be characterized by their hawkish approach; Truman had Communism, McCain the War on Terror.
• Both had slow starts to the campaign.  McCain and is campaign were all but dead in the beginning of the race for the White House.
• Truman wasn’t that popular even within his own party. McCain like Truman, had issues with differing factions with his own party.
• Both were members of the Party seen as least likely to win in November.

Senator Obama Equals Henry Wallace, Senator George McGovern and oddly enough Senator Strom Thurmond.

First a word on the Obama campaign:
I think there can be little argument at this point that more than anything, how the campaign turned this Freshman Senator into the Democratic Presidential nominee, has effectively changed the way presidential politics will be run for years to come. The campaign has broken all previous fundraising records using the internet and small donations. It understood the delegate math better than any other campaign and neutralized Clinton’s win New Jersey with gains in places such as Idaho. It has also had the first truly 50 Primary state strategy that will become the model for future races. With that said, there are elements to the style of the campaign that are similar to Wallace, McGovern and yes even Thurmond.

• The Anti-war approach: McGovern’s popularity with young people can largely be attributed to his opposition to the Vietnam War. Wallace too, was able to initially galvanize support from the PCA through his opposition to a escalating tension with the Soviet Union. Obama’s opposition to the war helped launch his Senatorial run and his Presidential.
• Like McGovern, Obama’s fundraising relied heavily on a large group of small donors.
• Thurmond’s passionate oratory skills and youthful vigor were what helped him garner 38 Electoral Votes.
• McGovern’s rise came from the implosion of presumptive frontrunner Muskie’s campaign. Obama’s Iowa victory put the first dent in the ‘inevitability’ argument of the Clinton camp.
• Also of note here, was Muskie’s inability to adapt to this new type of press coverage. This strikes me as very similar to the Clinton campaigns, but largely former President Bill Clinton’s, inability to understand the viral nature of his gaffe on the internet. McGovern’s campaign gave the press the kind of unfettered access to, not only to campaign materials, but to the tools (phones, mimeographs, etc) that made making the news easier.
• Thurmond’s Presidential aspirations came two years into serving a term as Governor of South Carolina. Obama has served only 4 of 6 years in the Senate.

[It is my hope that Senator Obama fairs better than these three]
One last note: I think it’s interesting that the pack mentality of the press corps in 1972 is hyper present today.  I don’t know how many times a particular talking point (like the Idaho/New Jersey delegate math point I made earlier) gets rapidly circulated and becomes ‘the’ talking point. My subsequent posts will be chalk of more links.